By Dexter Barton.
Spring Training is officially underway. With the first spring training games already in the books, it’s time to take a look at each team's potential for this MLB season. Some teams are expecting to hoist a banner come October, while others are just thankful there isn’t a relegation system in use. In this week's article, I’ll share what I’m excited about for every team in the AL East this season and then project each team's best and worst case scenarios for the upcoming season. Next week I’ll be back with the NL East preview.
AL East
Baltimore Orioles:
It’s hard not to get excited about a team that won 31 more games in 2022 than the year before. After losing 108+ games in the past three full seasons, Baltimore reached their highest win total since their 2016 season, finishing 83-79. Even though the AL East is well known to be the toughest division in baseball, it’s hard not to get excited about a team with as much young talent as the Orioles have. Adley Rutschman is already the best catcher in baseball and other inexperienced but talented players like Austin Hays and Ryan Mountcastle have enormous power potential. The infield is built around defense and speed. While the hitting stats don’t jump off the page, the double play combination of Jorge Mateo and Ramon Urias combined for 7 fWAR. Flamethrower Félix Bautista will look to build off of a brilliant rookie season (2.19 ERA, 12.1 K/9), and ace starting pitcher John Means looks like he’ll be back from Tommy John surgery by July.
Best Case Scenario: 90-72 and wild card berth, loss in divisional series
Worst Case Scenario: 76-86, finish last in AL East
Toronto Blue Jays:
After finishing second in the AL MVP race to global phenom Shohei Ohtani, star 1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr. felt good about his team’s future. “Last year was a trailer, now you guys will see the movie.” Fast forward to today after the Toronto Blue Jays missed the playoffs entirely and Guerrero regressed in literally every hitting statistic recorded. Objectively, however, this is still a very strong team I expect to contend late into October. They are hoping for a big season from new OF/C Daulton Varsho after trading away former top prospect Lourdes Gurriel Jr. to the Diamondbacks for him. The Blue Jays’ front office is surely excited about young stars like Alek Manoah and Bo Bichette who will both look to build on their incredible 2022 campaigns. George Springer will look to stay healthy coming off of an impressive 4 WAR season. The X factor of the team is Jose Berrios. After the Blue Jays traded for him midway through the 2021 season, he posted a 3.58 ERA in 12 starts. This was enough for the team to sign him to a 7 year contract worth 131 million dollars. Unfortunately, the deal already looks horrible just one year later. Despite going 12-7, Berrios’ ERA inflated to 5.23 in 32 starts. He led the league in hits and earned runs allowed. With Alek Manoah and Kevin Gausman finishing 3rd and 9th in the AL Cy Young Race last year, Berrios doesn’t need to be the ace of the staff. Even getting slightly above league average production out of him would make the Blue Jays undoubtedly one of the favorites to win the AL Pennant.
Best Case Scenario: 100-62, loss in World Series
Worst Case Scenario: 85-77, loss in divisional Series
New York Yankees:
Coming off of one of the most uneven seasons in franchise history, the New York Yankees are searching for continuity. After starting the season 52-18, well on their way to the highest season win total in MLB history, they didn’t even reach 100 wins, settling for 99 and eventually getting swept by the Astros yet again in the ALCS. It became evident that, even with the best offensive season without PEDs since maybe ever, the Yankees were miles behind the Astros in every facet of the game. Bringing Aaron Judge back on a record breaking 9 year, 360 million dollar contract will simply not be enough to compete with top MLB teams in a 7 game series. The Yankees recognized this and signed free agent SP Carlos Rodon to a 6 year, 162 million dollar contract. This is undoubtedly a great get for a team that is lacking rotation depth, but the biggest concern are his injuries which are already surfacing. Rodon will begin the year on the IL with forearm tightness, which often leads to Tommy John Surgery. If Rodon misses a year of his prime to get his arm surgically repaired this could end up being one of the worst free agent contracts of all time. However, if the issue isn’t long term, Rodon is talented enough to be the co-ace of the staff alongside Gerrit Cole and lead the Yankees to their first title since 2009.
Best Case Scenario: 106-56, Anthony Volpe wins ROTY, Judge repeats as MVP, win World Series, Jasson Dominguez wins World Series MVP
Worse Case Scenario: 95-67, loss in ALCS to Astros for the 67th year in a row
Boston Red Sox:
The Red Sox are going to be pretty bad this year. After finishing last season at 78-84, they signed Japanese outfielder Masataka Yoshida and 3B Justin Turner from the Dodgers. While re-signing homegrown superstar Rafael Devers was an absolute must, some people rightfully question the decision to give Devers the money instead of former MVP Mookie Betts who was traded away for pennies on the dollar instead of being signed to a long term contract. Furthermore, letting fan favorite Xander Bogaerts sign with the Padres for 11 years and 280 million was surely disappointing for the fans. While the Red Sox front office wasn’t completely asleep at the wheel this winter, the Devers extension and other two meaningful free agent pickups don’t move the needle for me. They will need a big season out of 2B Trevor Story who played horribly and then got injured. Chris Sale is finally reportedly healthy after dealing with a pinky fracture, tommy john surgery, and countless other ailments over his time with the Red Sox. Alex Verdugo, the most productive piece acquired in the Mookie Betts trade, will look to bounce back after posting just a 102 OPS+ last season. The Red Sox do have a decent amount of talent, but not enough to compete with the top of their division, let alone the top of the AL.
Best Case Scenario: 87-75, loss in ALDS
Worst Case Scenario: 70-92, Sale and Story get injured again
Tampa Bay Rays:
The Tampa Bay Rays are always better than expected. No one is better at competing with a limited budget than the Rays. The Rays have a ton of turnover in the organization, but the mission of the team remains clear. Win as much while spending as little as possible. For the most part, the Rays have succeeded in both respects. Since 2017, the Rays have the 5th most regular season wins in all of MLB. In that time period, they have never ranked higher than 24th in payroll, bottoming out at 30th in 2019. So, how has the team remained so competitive? The answer is analytics. Their scouting and analysis department is widely respected as the industry leader in player development, especially for pitchers. The Rays’ game plan heading into this season is the same as any other. Almost all of their innings will be pitched by players that the average fan has never heard of, but they will mostly find incredible success with the Rays. The lineup will do just enough offensively for them to win games. This will ring especially true if 22 year old second year phenom Wander Franco bounces back from a minor let down of a season after being signed to a 11 year 182 million dollar contract. 3B Yandy Diaz’s continued productivity will be crucial for a lineup lacking many impact bats. Tampa Bay would love for starting pitcher Tyler Glasnow to return from his oblique injury soon to take some pressure off of the pitching staff. I think the Rays will be as competitive as ever but they lack the superstar talent needed to make a run deep into october.
Best Case Scenario: 93-69, loss in ALCS
Worse Case Scenario: 85-77, win in wild card game but loss in ALDS
Thanks for reading this week’s predictions and I’ll be back with more NL East predictions next week!
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